Thursday, March 21, 2013

Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 4





Xero Ltd [XRO.NZX] is a company that I just cant take my eyes off.  How long can it keep going up and up, like a well, like a rocket.

It traded down at $11.25 today after going past the 10 buck mark late last week..


It surpasses several of my current portfolio MFT - Mainfreight LtdWHS - Warehouse Group Ltd ,MHI - Michael Hill International Ltd ,  FRE - Freightways Ltd , BGR - Briscoe Group Ltd PPL ,- Pumpkin Patch Ltd and these all make handsome profits.


None of the aforementioned are even close except for the often mentioned  MFT - Mainfreight Ltd  is currently trading at around $11.25c , itself making a net profit of around $65 million to March 31 2013.


The depth of buying shows little wavering, with some people on a well known share site even picking $20 per share and another skilled player boasting of over 1000% returns - good on him, we like making money but we like people to keep it.

You know it is time to start selling when people start talking like this.

NO share, cash, investment is worth it if it hasn't yet made money and I will spell it out, Xero Ltd [XRO.NZX] has not made any M-O-N-E-Y and  is far from reporting one any time soon. In fact its many years away.

Furthermore its revenue to March 31 of an expected $38.6m, meaning Xero is currently trading at a multiple of 36 times forecast revenues.


Now I have spoken to CEO Rod Drury on one occasion and while is a very smart cookie, he cannot yet make 10 dollars into $1000 or make his company make money no matter how good it is.


That is a worry, just how good the company is. There must be another company around run by some background nerd just itching with his index finger on go button. 


Then it is all go into the next big thing.



Xero Ltd @ Share Investor 

Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 3
Xero: To those I haven't warned before
Do you still Love Xero?
Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 2
Share Price Alert:Xero Ltd
Xero Ltd: 2011 HY Loss looking promising
From Xero to Hero?
Stock of the Day: Xero Ltd
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero? 
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum
Download Xero Company Report
Listen to Rod Drury Interview



Recommended Amazon Reading




Xero For Dummies (For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance))Xero For Dummies (For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance)) by Heather Smith
Buy new: $26.68 / Used from: $12.37
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Shareinvestor 2013

Monday, March 18, 2013

Cyprus: Bailout Deepens but Can it Affect US

News of a forced bailout of Cypriot banks should come as good news to us over here.

Savers will be forced to pries open their accounts to the tune of 10%, ok if you are sniveling leftie who has contributed to the collapse but this leaves out the vast numbers of unemployed, students, teachers etc who also contributed.

This would best be avoided through an overall tax of 10% on individuals incomes for 2-3 years. That, way no individual could avoid it unless they were unemployed the full 3 years.

Of course this is bad news and unfair on all those who paid their own way, and continue to but life is unfair, I guess.

But the real consequences for us is that the same thing could happen here. Under our own Open Bank Resolution ,(RBS) (Brought to you by Leighton Smith and my mate at The Lost Soul blog)


" The OBR policy is designed to ensure that first losses are borne by the bank’s existing shareholders. In addition, a portion of depositors’ and other unsecured creditors’ funds will be frozen to bear any remaining losses. To the extent that these funds are not required to cover losses as more detailed assessment of the position of the bank is completed, these funds will be released to depositors. At a high level, this outcome replicates the outcome that would apply in the event that a failed bank was liquidated. The primary advantage of the OBR scheme, however, is that depositors would have access to a large proportion of their balances throughout the process. This contrasts with what would happen under a normal liquidation, where depositors might not have access to any of their funds for a significant period."


NO, no no.

Most people who put their money into bank accounts the buck stops at their accounts they are not, and do not participate in the banks profits, or in this case the banks (sort of - they are govts that are intervening on their own (govts) losses) losses.

In this case it is clearly wrong headed to do, would cause panic and would clearly be an election loser.

Will it happen here?

In theory yes but our banks are among the safest in the world  (read the august 2012 PWC report ) but should they really need to they have free pass.

That should worry us all.


Banks @ Share Investor




Friday, March 15, 2013

Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 3




I know it can I think it can, that's the phrase Xero Ltd [XRO.NZX] holders have been using over the last couple of months as the share price has moved from mid 8s to the mid 10s. Still,  it has gone higher than I would have imagined, its trajectory really bizarre given that has yet to turn a profit or even getting close to it.

I suppose that I should really rate it based on the Australian experience - they tend to go overboard on stock prices too, but I really cant pick it. 


In absence of bad news it seems to be up from here.   


I suppose they would have to add 5 0r 6 bucks - those folks from the land of oz - because they have stocks based on nothing that are valued in similar multiples.


You will lose money if you buy this stock ... unless you are an insider. 



Xero Ltd @ Share Investor 


Xero: To those I haven't warned before
Do you still Love Xero?
Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 2
Share Price Alert:Xero Ltd
Xero Ltd: 2011 HY Loss looking promising
From Xero to Hero?
Stock of the Day: Xero Ltd
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero? 
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum
Download Xero Company Report
Listen to Rod Drury Interview



Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
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Shareinvestor 2013

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Of Wagging, Salivating Tongues

I'm getting nervous.

Why am I getting nervous?

Because the value of my portfolio keeps rising - I'm what you call a slightly negative investor.

The value of the portfolio is just over $ 509,000.00 and has climbed steadily since my incarceration ended at the end of May - from around $ 390,000.00.

It reached the half million mark at the beginning of the week and has put on nearly 20% in 2.5 months.

My finger is poised to sell but I just cant, yet, because nobody has been crazy enough to give me what I want.

I want to ditch the 10000 ASBPB shares I hold and FBU but think I can get more for these if I wait, and for some smaller holdings of others, BGR and HLG have done really well...350 plus %.

Starting to do well is FPH, well duh the dollar wasn't going to stay at that rate forever, it is the reason the stock is performing, not that the company is actually performing, as it has been for years.

Contact energy looks about to break of of its trading range of $5.30 - $5.50 and bout time to since it will be doing some sort of fine business in the countries heatwave/drought and this coming profit result should be a doozy - and it may be taken over by someone.

The WHS dropped into the green this week as I stepped back into the country after holiday - oh ditch the holiday moniker, seriously but it was up and I had one guy who took my advice to buy some last week, who did and he scored about 8 k - beat my 3k after about 5 years.

SKC is going up and up and up - notice a pattern there. Well it keeps reaching for the limit of the tower but it is one that apart from being up about 150% after 10 years and almost now practically free still owes me about 2 bucks per share.

Then there is FRE which has gone up about 90% but still bugs me that it has not gone further  - it will one day.

Then MFT always end with the good ones North of 120% and still looking like a winner.

What else can I say ?


Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
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Shareinvestor 2013